Back to the Black Swan phenomenon. Before the discovery of Australia, people were convinced that all swans were white. This fact illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge.
I will describe here the Black Swan phenomenon using the words of Taleb.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectation; because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

Summarize  the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability.

What is the Black Swan logic? What you don’t know is far more relevant that what you do know. And now think about my Red Swan. What you don’t see in my painting is far more relevant that what you do see!

Here is the painting: the painting consists of two panels.

Red Swan by Kasia B.Turajczyk

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable