Red Swan – a new painting

The inspiration for this Red Swan painting is the Black Swan; the Black Swan phenomenon, the Black Swan problem, the History of the Black Swan and the Black Swan book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. In summary, just the Black Swan. Actually till the moment that I held this book by Taleb in my hand I had never before heard about the Black Swan problem and phenomenon. My friend gave this book to me and said that I will love it. You see I studied philosophy and I love complicated, stubborn, controversial and unusual things. This book blew me away. This guy, Nicholas Taleb is an incredibly intelligent person-brain, intellectual dissident and a brilliant writer and in some way an academic libertarian.

Back to the Black Swan phenomenon. Before the discovery of Australia, people were convinced that all swans were white. This fact illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge.
I will describe here the Black Swan phenomenon using the words of Taleb.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectation; because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

Summarize  the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability.

What is the Black Swan logic? What you don’t know is far more relevant that what you do know. And now think about my Red Swan. What you don’t see in my painting is far more relevant that what you do see!

Here is the painting: the painting consists of two panels.

Red Swan by Kasia B.Turajczyk

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable